Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Stock Ideas for the Week of 9/26/16 to 9/30/16 - THURSDAY'S UPDATE

NOTES:
Charts below update daily with the most recent market prices.
"Scan" just means a stock idea. Comes from me 'scanning' through hundreds of charts to find opportunities.
When introducing new terminology I will try and link the word to an Investopedia article about the term.

UPDATES THURSDAY - 9/29/2016:
BAS!!! +$4,000! I don't know about you guys, but I had a hell of a day trading my oil ideas from yesterday. The market was looking good but then news about 10 large hedge funds all selling Deutsche Bank came out and sent the indexes into a free fall. Bio stocks had a pretty rough day as well. No new ideas today... I am going to Austin City Limits Music Festival tomorrow so I won't be trading and probably won't have an update.

Working trades:
BAS +33% - MONSTER DAY. I bought on Wednesday at $.62, sold 3/4 of my shares between $.81 and $.85. Still holding 1/4 overnight to see if it continues. If the market or oil is pulling it down I will sell it quick, these can fall fast.
SDRL +8% - another great oil move. Same plan as above, if it gets a trend going I'd play it, if it starts to sink I'd be out quick.
VCEL -4% - not moving very much, taking this off of my watch list.
AGTC +3% - still working perfectly, up about 10% from when posted. I think this will keep rolling and then have a REALLY big day soon.

UPDATES WEDNESDAY - 9/28/2016:
OPEC agreed on oil production cuts today. There are no specifics, but the details about how much they will be cutting production will be out in November, supposedly. This is bullish for oil. Crude oil jumped 5% today. When some macro-economic event like this happens, stocks begin to move, especially beat down oil stocks. There were dozens of little oil stocks up 20% at the end of the day. I have added two in particular to my watch list, but here is a list of them to look out for:
AREX
BCEI
NOG
BTE
EPE
GLF
HNR
JONE
MDR
REXX
TPLM
Too many to count. The ones we want to look out for are the ones with the smallest "floating shares" and the highest percent of float short for the best chance of a short squeeze.
Below are the top two on my watch for now:

BAS (Basic Energy Services)
Stock price when posted: $.62
"Basic Energy Services, Inc. provides well site services to oil and natural gas drilling and producing companies in the United States." - Yahoo Finance

Trade plan:

+ Buy break over $.63, stop loss at $.55
- Start selling when you're making money, could possibly run to $1.25, but don't wait for that

SDRL (SeaDrill Limited)
Stock price when posted: $2.31
"Seadrill Limited, an offshore drilling contractor, provides offshore drilling services to the oil and gas industry worldwide." - Yahoo Finance

Trade plan:

+ Buy below $2.35, stop loss at $2.20
- $3 is a nice target but sell some earlier to take profits and minimize risk

Working trades:
VCEL +4.5% - keeps on goin'.
AGTC +4.5% - beautiful trade idea. Working out swimmingly, keep it going until it stops working!
ZIOP +8% - still working from last week, again if this breaks over $6 could be a nice gainer.

Waiting:
DSX -1% - taking idea off watchlist, too much else going on to wait on this!

UPDATES TUESDAY- 9/27/2016:
Woah today was nuts. UVXY personal trade went horribly, I nearly lost my shirt today, but my day was saved thanks to making bank on RGSE! I had this on my personal watchlist and still missed the first huge move it had today from $2.40 to $5.60 in a matter of minutes. Was able to find a pattern I know well and bought at $5.13 around 12:30pm, sold half my shares at $6.80 and the other half at $7.90 just an hour later! Was posting the trades LIVE on my twitter. Helped some people make good money today! Just look below at the power of technical analysis when I made that the RGSE trade, GREEN arrow is my entry, RED arrows are my exits.

Working trades:
SCYX -1.25% - SCYX got up to $4.30 today. That is +30% from my trade idea last week! Closed down below $4 though and couldn't keep above support. I am done with this one as of right now!
ATNM -15% - not a good day for ATNM. Opened huge at $2.20, so if you sold according to my trade plan anywhere above $2 you made a great profit. If you held until close today you're back at break even. Done with this trade idea.
VCEL +2% - consolidated today. Same plan.
FH -2% - still holding above support, moving slower than I anticipated though. If this doesn't rip soon I'll take off watch.
AGTC +3.5 - broke and held over $9 today. Like the risk vs. reward on this one

Waiting:
DSX +1% - holding above support. Same idea as FH above

UPDATES MONDAY - 9/26/2016:
S&P500 down almost 1% today. A lot of weird action today. Presidential debate is tonight, Wells Fargo is getting sued, Deutsche Bank is losing money at an alarming rate, and of course don't forget all of the economic indicators saying there is a recession looming. Indexes are sitting right above support and if they fall below that support I think we will see a lot of panic selling! *chart below*
When the market overall is performing poorly, many easy "lay up" trades start to go against you... that being said, be okay with taking small profits on each trade from now until further notice. I actually shorted the market by buying some UVXY today... but I can explain that another time!

Working trades:

SCYX +2% - closed over $4 today. Another good move. Right below resistance though so be careful if still holding!
ATNM +11% - great breakout today! Just as I planned. Got up to $2.04. May go further, but my goal was hit so I'm taking this off watch.
VCEL -5% - VCEL almost hit $3 today, then began to sell off. Plan is still intact if you haven't sold any shares. Just be careful not to lose money on this after the awesome moves it has already had since day 1 of plan.
FH +0% - consolidated higher today. Looking for continuation.

Waiting:
AGTC -.5% - hit above $9 a few times today, closed weak. Still like the plan though.
DSX -5% - no follow through yet. If it can't hold $2.75 I am taking off watch.

VIEW LAST WEEK'S TRADE IDEAS HERE

Holy BioTech breakouts! Pull a biotech name from a hat and there is a 95% chance it broke out last week. If bios continue to have strength there will be some big moves this week. I only posted a few today because posting chart after chart of small-cap bio stocks would just be redundant.. they all look the same. So, here is a list of the ones with the best breakouts last week I believe have potential this week:

BDSI
BLRX
BTX
CPRX
CRIS
MRNS
SCYX
etc.
CRIS, SCYX, and VCEL all went incredibly well from my trade plans last week! Many ideas from last week continue to be working. If they are not crossed out then I still think they are good plays. Check out last weeks ideas HERE! This week's short list of ideas is posted below. I will not be trading this week because I am in the process of switching brokers, but I will keep giving updates daily!

AGTC (Applied Genetics Technology Corp.)
Stock price when posted: $8.96
"Applied Genetic Technologies Corporation, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops genetic therapies to treat patients with inherited diseases." - Yahoo Finance

Trading in a channel/wedge between $8.50 and $9 for the last two weeks. 


Trade plan:
+ Buy on a break and hold over $9, risk to $8.70, or $9 if you're not feeling froggy
- Has a lot of room to run if it is able to break over $9... so I would just sell some on the first big move and hold the rest until it stops working. Move stop loss up as it goes to minimize risk.

Risk -3%
Reward 10-33%


FH (Form Holdings)
Stock price when posted: $2.67
"FORM Holdings Corp., together with its subsidiaries, develops, acquires, and monetizes intellectual property worldwide. It operates through three segments: Intellectual Property, Fli Charge, and Group Mobile." - Yahoo Finance

Posted last Sunday. Didn't do much all week, then on Friday it started to breakout. This is one of my favorite trades for this week.


Trade plan:

+ Buy break over $2.75, stop out at $2.70
- Sell some shares at $3, keep rest to sell on way up to $4.

Risk -3%

Reward 9% to 45%


DSX (Diana Shipping Inc.)
Stock price when posted: $3.02
"Diana Shipping Inc. provides shipping transportation services. The company transports a range of dry bulk cargoes, including commodities, such as iron ore, coal, grain, and other materials in shipping routes through its ownership of dry bulk vessels worldwide." - Yahoo Finance

Posted last Thursday. Still on my watch. Beautiful break out of the downtrend line. There is still resistance at around $3.20 though.


Trade plan:

+ Buy between $2.80-$3, stop loss at $2.75ish
- Sell some shares in the $3.40s and move stop to $3.20, if it can break above $3.50 I would hold and sell up to $4.50

Risk -6%

Reward 16-33%


ATNM (Actinium Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
Stock price when posted: $1.79
"Actinium Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops targeted payload immunotherapeutics for the treatment of advanced cancers." - Yahoo Finance

Another bio stock.. I only like this one because it hasn't actually broken out yet which means you can get in before the break, if it occurs.

Trade plan:

+ Buy on a break and hold over $1.80, risk to $1.75
- Begin selling on move near $2, hold some for higher if you'd like

Risk -3%

Reward 11%+


VCEL (Vericel Corporation)
Price when posted: $2.64
"Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, researches, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells patient-specific expanded cellular therapies for use in the treatment of patients with severe diseases and conditions." - Yahoo Finance

Posted this Thursday last week at $2.64. Awesome move higher on Friday, +11%! I think this still has some legs. Buying up here is riskier but there is a lot of room to go up.


Trade plan:

+ Buy between $2.50-2.60, stop loss around $2.36
- Sell some shares at $3 and some up to $4 moving up stop loss as it goes

Risk -4%

Reward 15-40%

27 comments:

  1. Thank you! I got in on VCEL @ 930a Friday so I caught the move. Any thoughts on DRRX? Supposedly an announcement is coming Monday.

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    Replies
    1. Great job on VCEL! No thoughts on DRRX, especially seeing that it is down over 30% pre market, unfortunately

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  2. VCEL i may think about tomorrow. I still think it has some ways to go up.

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    Replies
    1. Good luck! Have a plan before you place the trade!

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  3. What do you think of NVAX? apparently they had a big flop recently but lots of insider trades going on. Thinking of buying on the dip.

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    Replies
    1. If you wanted to buy on the dip I think you are about $1 late. This is just a risky trade now, up over 100% already in the last week. Could go up, could go down at this point. Just my opinion, trade at your own risk! Good luck.

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    2. I agree. Got in NVAX at 2.01 last Thursday and sold today since its began to slow down. Gonna go in for FH tomorrow thanks to this blog, at my own risk of course Wolf ;)

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  4. Hey Wolf, my money is tied up currently by my SCTY acquisition play, but I'm enjoying reading through your past posts. I'll certainly be checking in weekly from now on.

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    Replies
    1. Free up some money, there are new opportunities every day! Thanks for the support

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  5. Hey Wolf, just started trading, and came across your blog on Reddit. Any tips or books for a newbie to get started?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Start here:
      http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/
      Always have a detailed plan before you trade.
      You will lose money in the beginning. Make some rules and stick to them.
      Good luck!

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  6. can you analyze these or look at them and let me know what you think. I am gonna play with them tomorrow. VSLR, CRHM and KINS.

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    Replies
    1. are any of these safe plays or too risky?

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    2. Both CRHM and KINS have nothing special about them that I would like to trade. VSLR looks okay if it keeps its trend from yesterday... but no big volume or anything that makes it a particularly good play.

      What plans do you have for them today? Why did you pick these?

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    3. I did a stock screen search, maybe I am not doing it very effectively. I had plans to purchase 1 or 2 of these stocks but after your comment, i don't think that's a good idea. Thanks wolf.

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    4. Depends on your reasons and what you saw in them. I prefer to trade stocks that have higher volume than normal, have gone up or down a significant percentage recently, or are breaking out of some type of pattern. Could be a totally different strategy than yours!

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    5. took your advice and traded in high volume stock did so much better today, price is still going up will see if it will hold up until close. symbol is KGC.

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  7. Hey Wolf
    I've started learning technical analysis by reading books and I came across your blog on reddit. I must say it is very interesting and I feel I am learning a lot here.
    My question is about your trade on RGSE. I was wondering what the patterns were that you knew well? The first one shown on the chart, from my limited knowledge, looks like it could be a bullish symmetrical triangle signalling the continuation upwards. But I can't figure out what the second one is. I thought it might be an ascending triangle, but you used it as an indicator to sell, I think. What was your thinking? Am I correct in assuming the first one was a bullish symmetrical triangle or did you have a different thought process?
    Cheers

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    Replies
    1. I would call the first pattern a "bullish pennant" (but bullish symmetrical triangle works, too). As far as the second one you are correct, it was a bullish triangle. However, you can see that I sold the last bit of my shares before that really formed up all of the way.

      I could explain all of the nuances for this situation, but it would take me forever. Essentially, there was way too many sellers and not enough buyers whenever it was at resistance and looking to breakout the second time, so when it ran out of buyers, there was a huge amount of selling that took place all at once and sent the stock straight down. Had it broken out, there would be new people looking to buy, potentially fueling the breakout higher. Look over this stuff:
      1. google "stock float"
      2. http://blog.stocktwits.com/lets-talk-about-low-float-stocks-a-conversation-with/
      3. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/trading-breakouts.asp

      Let me know if any of this helped!

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    2. Second one was an "ascending triangle"*, not "bullish triangle". Sorry!

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    3. Yup, that was very helpful thanks!

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  8. Picked up BAS at open, out at 0.82 (missed the high unfortunately).

    Thanks for sharing and keep it up, man!

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  9. Great to hear! Wish I didn't try to be greedy and sold on the first spike as well!

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