daily market update

This is where I'll keep my charts, trades, and thoughts. I'll update it as much as possible, so check back often for new ideas! If you want an opinion about a specific stock, leave a comment below, email wolfofwalmart@gmail.com, or tweet me @wolfofwalmart!

DISCLAIMER: The blue/red lines, shapes, and arrows are all technical charting lines I use to help give me an idea of where the stock could go. I will link a post about easy to use charting techniques very soon! 

February 12, 2016 - What's going to happen to the market and your favorite stocks next week? 

First off, saw Deadpool on Friday night. Holy cow...  so good. 9.9/10. If you haven't, go see it right now. Preferably IMAX. Got this sweet lil' poster, too.

I'll start by reminding everyone that the U.S. markets will be closed on Monday, February 15, in observance of President's day.

Before I get started, I want to tell you a small thing about SPY. Like I said, SPY follows the S&P 500 to a T. The S&P 500 is an index (large collection) of stocks like the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ composite. SPY, however, is only 1/10 the price of the S&P 500 at all times. So, if you hear on the news that the S&P 500 fell 50 points (dollars) today, then that means SPY fell 5 points. In the chart below, you see that SPY's price is currently $186.63, which means that the S&P 500's total price is $1866.30. Hopefully that helps a little bit!

So, what happened in the markets today?

Well, not what I wanted. But, just what I expected. 

The S&P 500 popped up a whopping 2%, right to its resistance line at $187. I'll thank the algo's (algorithms) for that.

Here's a closer look at it. SPY has been teasing the downtrend line all the way down since the beginning of 2016. It even broke below it's prior support at $187 and has been trading in a channel between $181 and $187 for a few days.

Why next week is important for the markets...

On Tuesday, when the markets open back up, SPY's downtrend line and resistance line will cross... and that's potentially a huge event. Depending on how SPY reacts to this will show us what is likely to happen in the following weeks/months. If SPY can break and hold above the downtrend line and resistance line, which is above $187ish, we are likely to see a short-term continuation higher... I'm predicting to the $200-201 levels in the next few weeks, but not much higher (I'll tell you why, keep reading).

OR

My dreams can come true and SPY will not be able to break through its resistance & downtrend lines, causing it to continue to trade in the channel between $181-$187, and potentially break down through it's $181 support. If this happens, it will be safe to say that we are officially in a bear market and I think that $150, or $1500, is coming on SPY and the S&P 500.

A few more examples of why next week matters...

This is Apple. Apple's chart sort of looks like SPY's doesn't it? Well, the same ideas go for both of them. Apple has pretty strong support at the $92.50 level, but it also has a pretty strong downtrend it has been following since last year. If Apple is able to pop above its downtrend line, I think the stock can see $105 before we continue lower again. If, instead, Apple breaks below $92.50, I think we will see $88 for sure short term, then $75-80 months from now. (Hope this helps Taylor!)

This is Google.... err.. Alphabet? Stupid name change. Google has held up differently than your average blue chip stock. After breaking its uptrend on January 1st this year, Google has been trading in this broadening channel, from up to $780ish, down to $670ish. Right now, Google is chilling right above its support level and uptrend line at $670. Depending on what the rest of the market does next week, we will either see a nice healthy bounce off the support line, or a BIG red day down to who knows where..

Another one. Netflix. Pretty much the same idea as Apple, Google, SPY... if it can break and hold above the downtrend line I think we see $100-105 short term. No break? $70 level, I guarantee it.

Finally, why I might be short-term bullish come next week, but long-term incredibly bearish.

This scary chart is SPY again, or the S&P 500, over the last twenty years. Every eight years we've had a "bear market", "crash", "recession", whatever the hell you want to call it, it's the same thing. Those blue lines are called "simple moving averages", they are used to measure trends in the market. When the light blue line crosses above the dark blue line, the markets tend to change trends and go higher, when the light blue line crosses below the dark blue line... bad things happen. I'm not sure what we're going to call the "crash" of 2016... maybe "Markets Out of Gas Crash"? Pretty bad oil and gas pun.... what about "Make America Great Again: the Donald Trump Dump"?

And this is why I think that if we don't see levels below $181 next week, I think we will bounce and hit the $200-201 level before the market farts and falls over.

Whatever happens, next week will be fun to watch. Stay involved and keep up-to-date by coming back here every evening!

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February 11, 2016 - Summer Saves the Day

DISCLAIMER: Leveraged ETFs are not a safe investment. Don't trade them unless you know what you are doing! 

MARTIN SHKRELI IS AT IT AGAIN! FIRST WU-TANG, NOW YEEZY'S ALBUM??
IS THERE ANYTHING THIS GUY WON'T DO FOR ATTENTION?!!

SELL ALL OF YOUR SHKRELI AND KANYE SHARES AND BUY AS MUCH PUPPY VIDEOS STOCK AS YOU CAN CUZ THIS MARKET IS DEPRESSING!!



As y'all have seen from my posts, I'm following volatility tracking ETFs (eg. TVIX, UVXY). For a lack of time and better words, these ETFs go up a lot when the market goes down and vice versa. Luckily for me, the market has been going down. I have to apologize for being excited to see the global stock markets in turmoil as I know many of you are not having as much luck with it. That's why, in times of uncertainty and bear markets, I always say it's okay to not be holding any stocks, bonds, ETFs, anything.. cash is a position too! 

Back to it. This is SPY. SPY follows the S&P 500 index. I use SPY as my overall market wellness indicator. As you can see, things aren't looking so great for good ol' SPY here in this 2 year/weekly chart. The S&P 500 is down nearly 15% off 2015's highs. Today was actually the first day since early 2014 that SPY closed at a price below $185.

(you can see there is support for SPY is right around $181-182.)

This is my crazy baby, UVXY. It's one of the ETF's that rips when the market falls. It's a beautiful thing. It broke above it's seven month downtrend line today, which is a great sign for continuation higher.

Here is a different look at her. The last 7 or 8 trading days I have been accumulating long option calls for UVXY along the way up. Each green arrow is another buy. So far, so good.

My plan for this UVXY trade is short-term, I'm thinking at most until the end of next week, but hopefully I don't have to wait that long for the move I'm expecting. I think that in the coming days, as long as no dramatically great economic news comes out, that SPY will break down underneath it's support of the $181-182, and continue down to it's next support levels much lower.

WE WERE SO CLOSE TODAY.

The chart below is SPY on a daily basis over the last 8 or so months. The first circle on the left shows the "flash crash" that happened back in August (thanks HFT!), which caused me to make a nice chunk of change when I was in Canada. That was the first time the $181 level was tested. The next time was on my birthday this year, happy birthday to me! Lastly, today we tested the $181 level again and I was so sure it was going to break through and head lower on capitulation (capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling. - investopedia.com)....

Then this happened..

A girl named Summer, who used to be a journalist for Wall Street Journal in Dubai, tweeted that OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is finally ready to agree to stop producing so much damn oil. Long story short, if this tweet were true, then the price of oil would stop plummeting and would begin to move higher again, in turn bringing the global markets higher.

Well, this got tweeted around like crazy and even the big stock market news companies picked up on it. Seven minutes later.......

The market was just minutes from collapsing and making me bank!!! But, as you can see from the circle in this chart, as soon as everyone saw this girls tweet the markets went nuts, hitting new highs for the day!

The worst part... THE TWEET WASN'T EVEN TRUE! She later explained that she didn't word it correctly blah blah blah and it was essentially BS. This random girls BS lifted the markets from utter destruction today. Took my $3000 gains down to $1000. Not cool Summer.

It's a good thing this is a longer term trade, at least for me, and I wasn't staring at the markets all day otherwise I probably would have had an aneurysm. Maybe tomorrow we can finally hit all new lows and my plan will come to fruition!